Posted on
October 14, 2026
by
Brian Danyliw
The short version: Cowichan Valley home prices are holding steady, but the market is cooling. The median sale price for January to September is $719,900, only 0.7% below the same period in 2025. What has changed is activity. Sales are down 5.6% for the year and down a third in September alone, and there are 13% more homes for sale than a year ago.
That combination matters, because prices tend to follow activity. When sales slow and listings build, sellers gradually adjust their expectations, usually a few months later. Here's where things stand across the Valley and in the communities I work in most.
The Cowichan Valley overall
Sales, Jan–Sep: 1,027 in 2026, compared with 1,088 in 2025 (−5.6%)
Median sale price, Jan–Sep: $719,900 in 2026, compared with $725,000 in 2025 (−0.7%)
Homes for sale, end of September: 894 in 2026, compared with 789 in 2025 (+13.3%)
Months of supply: 8.3 in 2026, compared with 6.6 in 2025 (+1.7)
Sale price as a share of list price: 97.1% in 2026, compared with 97.1% in 2025
By property type, single family medians are down 1.8%, acreage is down 3.1% and condos are down 6.7%. Townhouses are the exception: sales are up 20% and the median is up 8.3%, helped by new construction in East Duncan.
Homes are still selling at about 97% of list price in under two months, so well-priced homes continue to move. The difference is that buyers now have more choice, and homes priced above the market are sitting longer.
East Duncan & Maple Bay
A steady market. Sales are level with last year at 231, and the median is up 1.4% to $743,000. Unlike most of the Valley, there are fewer homes for sale than a year ago (174, down from 193). Townhouses have been especially strong, with sales up 35% and the median up 7.9%.
Mill Bay
Prices are up, but supply has jumped. Sales rose to 28 from 21, and the median is up 7.0% to $1,123,000, led by single family homes. The number of homes for sale went from 7 to 18 and there were no sales in September, so expect more negotiation this fall.
Cobble Hill
The tightest of these markets. Homes for sale are down 38% from a year ago, and sales are up 7%. The overall median is flat at $900,000, but single family medians are down 6–8% and homes are taking longer to sell, about 66 days compared with 46 last year.
Cowichan Bay
More sales at lower prices. Sales are up 20%, but the median fell 9.6% to $780,000, partly because far more townhouses sold this year. The single family median is down 3.4%, and there are 23% more homes for sale.
Lake Cowichan
The softest of these markets. Sales are down 20%, September had just 3 sales compared with 17 a year ago, and there is roughly 10 months of supply. The single family median is down 6.5% to $715,000. If you're buying at the lake, this is the most choice and negotiating room we've seen in some time.
Youbou
A small market where a few sales move the numbers. Sales rose to 18 from 12, and the median jumped to $1,295,000 because most of this year's sales were waterfront. With 30 homes for sale, buyers have plenty to choose from.
Chemainus
Prices are softer. Sales are steady at 98 (99 last year), but the median fell 10.9% to $666,304. Part of that is the mix: far more townhouses sold this year and fewer single family homes. The single family median is down a more modest 2.6%. There are 31% more homes for sale, and supply has risen to about 9 months.
Ladysmith
A market that has cooled noticeably. Sales are down 5.4%, and September sales nearly halved compared with a year ago. The median is down 3.5% to $683,000, with single family homes down 4.3% and acreage down 11.4%. There are 19% more homes for sale, and the balance has shifted from a sellers' market a year ago to a buyers' market today.
What this means for you
Selling: pricing right from the first day matters more now than it did a year ago. The homes that sell quickly are the ones priced to the market, not ahead of it.
Buying: more listings and slower sales mean more choice and more room to negotiate, especially in Lake Cowichan, Ladysmith, Chemainus, Youbou and Mill Bay.
If you'd like to know what these numbers mean for your home or your search, I'm always happy to talk. Reach out for a confidential, no-obligation conversation.
Brian Danyliw, Sotheby's International Realty Canada
Source: Vancouver Island Real Estate Board, 12 Month Comparative Activity by Property Type, Zone 3 – Cowichan Valley, September 2026 and September 2025. Figures include all property types unless noted. Small markets can swing with the mix of homes sold. Months of supply is homes for sale divided by average monthly sales over the past 12 months.